In the current atmosphere of concern and even fear about changes in the American economic system and resulting way of life, the waging of war and peace in a fragile world, and the interdependence wrought by the realities of globalization, many people find it difficult to be optimistic about the future. Not Joel Kotkin. In seven chapters and 125 points of expanded narrative, Kotkin provides a sweeping glimpse of his take on the future of America over the next 40 years in The Next Hundred Million: America by 2050 (Penguin Press, 2010). The title references the addition of another 100 million American residents by the year 2050. A prolific author and social geographer, Kotkin address four significant areas of change: demography, ethnicity, the expansion of suburbia, and the growth of the heartland states.
Vital but Different
If demography is destiny, the United States has a positive future. The increasing population growth in the U.S. from natural births and continued immigration will be in contrast to the rest of the world, especially Europe, Japan, and even China. This demographic vitality will drive the U.S.’s economic resilience and also significantly increase the inter-generational dimension of our population.
America’s belief that "national identity transcends race or religion" and our historical receptivity to immigration distinguishes it from the rest of the world. Kotkin describes a "post-ethnic" America in terms of cross-over retailing, cross-over suburbs, and a "hybrid culture" where one of five marriages could be inter-racial by mid-century.
Lure of Lower Density
One-half of the 2010 population lives in the suburbs, and the "lure of lower density" will intensify in the next 40 years. The need to house more people will result in major suburban expansion. Less reliant on their nearby urban core, these new suburbs will produce "smart sprawl" and blend work, play, culture, housing and economic development. The suburban population will be increasingly diverse in terms of age, marital status, gender, ethnicity and economic status. "Immigrants, their children and native-born minorities will become a dominant force in shaping suburbia," Kotkin says.
The growth of the heartland-that great space between the east and west coasts-will be fueled by technology, telecommunications and new sources of energy. As quality of life for families becomes more important and technology allows for "economic de-clustering" from traditional urban centers, a network of vibrant small cities will emerge, capitalizing on both the American pioneer spirit and entrepreneurial DNA.
Economic Disparity
Kotkin also gives attention to the increasing economic disparity that is focused more on class than race and to the continued need for authentic community. "The most pressing social problem facing mid-21st century America will be class," he says. An information society results in "an expanding affluent class of the highly educated, a stubbornly impoverished population, and a shrinking middle class." As we become less mobile and younger generations are more family friendly, "family and community are likely to remain central forces in the next few decades."